In this episode of UpOnly, Ledger is joined by special co-host CMSIntern, as they talk to Cred and Don about trading and markets.
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Show Notes
cmsintern Intro
⁃ Cold called Dan (@cmsholdings) for 2 minutes during a break and got grilled by Bobby (@robertjcho) for a whole 20 minutes
⁃ Started a blockchain club in college
⁃ Didn't Study memes in college despite popular lore, STEM stuff
⁃ Got liquidated in November (ONE OF US) makes < 10 trades a day now.
CryptoDonAlt Intro
⁃ Brother worked in IT, told him to look into it but couldnt figure out how to buy it. Moms credit card was a gating factor here
⁃ Watched the run up to $1k in BTC & the bear market and was interested, felt expensive at $200 so bought DOGE
⁃ Held until 16/17 because he loved the community, 16-17, sold it to buy BTC and started swapping around
⁃ Became a bear on Twitter and farmed all the clout
CryptoCred Intro
⁃ Got lucky to be in crypto before 2017 and survived and now he is where he is
WAGMI?
⁃ Don: Thinks we have another crash before we go up and will eventually in future make it. 24K -> 40K -> 20K -> MOON
⁃ There are still people left to panic sell even though leverage is lower. Fine buying back in higher if the market turns but doesn’t feel great about it here
⁃ Cred – Asked to disagree but he doesn't, reinforces Don’s points. Zoom out, trend is broken
⁃ Retail free money trades are rekt TikTok / Doge / BSV? , predatory markets BARTS!
⁃ Cred: Trend followers say lower MAs, no opportunity cost to be out of market here
⁃ cmsintern: Blind optimism and asks for more bullish sentiment
⁃ Don: Long term fine just dont want to be panic selling
⁃ Ledger: Drawing tonnes of lines seems like too many lines now
⁃ Cred: Despite all of the bad news BTC is still over 30K which means someone is buying & news effects are more muted now. Not high conviction bearish, not high conviction anything – hanging in stables, not even farming, lending, or short
CMS Alpha & Axie Infinity
⁃ cmsintern: CMS have a couple of different thesis being worked on but cant talk about them or will get fired. Believe in a future MultiChain universe
⁃ Personally waiting for the Axie fork on SOL to go all in. First report he ever did as an intern was for Joe on Axie
⁃ Don: Axie is a pretty good game compared to most other blockchain games which are terrible
Trading
⁃ Ledger: Charlie Lee on UpOnly was the pico top for LTC this cycle
⁃ cmsintern: brought up TA and charting at CMS 2 weeks in and got laughed at for what he said
⁃ Cred: would not only trade charts long term, will look for fundamentals for conviction
⁃ Don: Making judgement based on what the Bitfinex whale is doing isn’t going to be beneficial. People will use it to confirm their pre-existing position
⁃ Worth watching if a pump is led by spot or by futures
⁃ cmsintern: Dan says funding rates isn’t part of the game, it *is* the game
The Flippening
⁃ Don: you can make an infinite amount of alt-coins and even if you pick right even your choice can be overtaken too, it’s just the way it is for emerging tech
⁃ Cred: Considering it counter-factual, what would Bitcoin need to not be doing for something to catch up, something gnarly would need to happen to BTC and that might be net negative and bring down everything else with it
⁃ Ledger: BTC has the primary network effects in crypto. POW negative narratives is maybe most likely to cause ETH to have a chance to take over. Agree with Don, BTC flip likely drags down the whole market
⁃ Don: Market is way too immature for it right now and BTC won’t go to second place but maybe that changes in future, who knows
Fundamentals
⁃ Cred: The decentralisation of hash-rate is long term bullish as well as the loss of less environmentally friendly miners in China
⁃ Don’t be caught on the wrong side, be it up or down. Don’t manage a bad position, wait for the right one and take it from a position of strength
Final Alpha
⁃ Cred: “Confirmation is for Christians”. If you wait for confirmation you have to be right, if you trade at the extremes you can be wrong and still make money or at least lose less
⁃ Don: When you’re making excuses for losing trades you are taking away an opportunity to grow. The only thing you should be ashamed of is saying it isn’t your fault because you won’t get better. Accept your mistakes and ask yourself how you can do better next time
⁃ cmsintern: Use FlipMetrics & TheDailyApe. Understand asymmetric upside and look for domains outside of crypto where you can also find this
Notes by Luke
Music by GiovanniPickle