UpOnly returns with Cobie and Ledger, as they are joined by Cred and Jim Talbot to discuss the state of the market.
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Show Notes
Introduction
– SBF just bought Robinhood and launched FTX stocks at the same time
– Cobie is doing pretty good
– Internet sad so doesn’t help
Markets
– Keyboard Monkey went up 7 figs today then down 6 figs
– Jim not trading too much rn
– Jim: “I’m short Planet Fitness though”
– Cred is doing “Shred with Cred” fitness routine
– Cred: “If you can’t afford food you might as well”
– Cobie: “So just to be clear 0 of the people on this show are actively trading the market”
– Ledger: “I am!”
– Ledger has tried knife catching ETH 4 times now
– Jim doesn’t believe we’ve bottomed
– Cobie personally believes Tether is fully backed
– But its 0 cost to not hold risk there
Have We Bottomed?
– Ledger thinks yes
– Jim thinks no
– Jim thinks this bear market will be longer than past bear markets
– The market participants this time have been significantly dumber on average
– Jim thinks growth companies will be stagnant for next few years
– Cred: “Don’t fight the FED”
– Jim: “When the FEDs in QE mode, buy stuff. When the FEDs in tightening mode, sell stuff”
– Cred: “Survive the lows, then have capital to deploy on the new trends”
LUNA unwind
– Cobie: “The thing that’s astounding to me is the amount of industry experts who got completely nuked”
– Cobie: “Delphi Labs built all these things on top of LUNA. Hashed lost 3.5B on LUNA. 3AC bought it, Su Zhu went on a big rip on Twitter”
– Jim: “Can we take a second to appreciate GCR hedging his $22M bet with 72 cents”
– VCs have had it too good for too long, so its tough when arrogance comes in and you don’t check yourself
– Cobie: “It does feel like we’ll get a lot of regulatory repercussions from this”
– A YC company called StableGains was built on Anchor and lost like $50M
ApeCoin
– Jim: “I try to be positive but we are fucked”
– Cobie: “I’m never short BAYC cause it just seems to only go up”
– Cred: “I hate NFTs that try to backdoor DeFi, like you stake it then get IL then xyz”
– NFTs may go out of style just like fashion
– BAYC’s challenge now is to become something like Star Wars or the Marvel Universe
What Is Undervalued?
– Jim: “Agricultural land”
– Ledger: “We’ve gone from yield farmers to actual farmers”
– Cobie: “Some land in developing countries”
– Cred: “Some type of like simping thing prob has a blow off top incoming, no pun intended”
– Jim: “Watches have topped”
– Ledger: “Things that more in line with isolationism”
– Cobie: “I think AI will be increasingly important in the world but I don’t know how you’d long it”
Is Bitcoin Narrative Still True?
– Jim thinks Bitcoin is more speculative now as it hasn’t fulfilled it’s potential, maybe failed?
– Cobie: “It sounds like you’re in a position where you’re never buying ever again mate” lol
– Cobie not so convinced
– Jim: “How long do we wait though?”
– Cred: “As long as it takes dammit”
– Cred believes we have seen this adoption to some extent already, still working
– Ledger: “Jim it seems like your ideal life is buy a bunch of land, build a golf course in the middle and just live there forever”
Q&A
Jim what’s your handicap?
– 6
What does everyone think of record high longs on Bitfinex?
– Jim: “it’s hedging”
– Jim: “The higher the longs go, the more fucked we are”
How to make it over next 3-5 years?
– Jim: “Take profit!”
Jim what do you think about the merge?
– “I couldn’t give 2 shits about the merge”
Best alts to hold?
– Jim: “There are no good alts to hold. at all”
Jim how many chromie squiggles do you own?
– 6 (kidding)
Are all metaverse coins going to 0?
– Cred: “Very likely they will”
Music by GiovanniPickle