In this episode, Light rejoins Cobie and Ledger to speak sober wisdom into our hearts, and we finish with at least some degree of hopium, maybe.
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Show Notes
Light Update
⁃ Completely disappeared from the internet 👻
⁃ “It’s like a euthanasia roller coaster” ???
⁃ Most of the supply exists in exchanges/ wallets, then
⁃ Alts are a speculative vehicle – people really just use them to try to get rich
⁃ The dead cat bounce hasn’t even happened for people to exit there
⁃ Cobie: “There’s no one to bid – like if u bid ur just giving an exit to some 50,000 BTC mega whale” 🐳
⁃ Ledger: “WHERE IS THE BID”
⁃ Light: “There’s a lot of hope out there cause there’s a lot of natural beta to the market”
⁃ Light: “It looks like a train wreck in slow motion” jfc Light save us man
Long Term or Short Term Bearish?
⁃ It was built to be anti-fragile
⁃ It will continue to surprise people when they think it’s dead 💀
⁃ Light: “you will continue to see negative headlines out of China”
⁃ Light: “could be at a multi-decade macro top when you take into account meme stocks and that 14 year olds on tik tok really believe stocks only go up – who is left to buy in?” 😵
⁃ Light: “Other than Charizard first editions, I can’t think of anything that is more speculative than crypto” Light sir who hurt u
⁃ Cobie: “I’m sorry I’m not even listening I’m just laughing at the chat”
Chat respect picture to show sentiment
*this is almost so bearish notes may not be warranted*
Bearishness
⁃ Light: *continued micro & macro 100% bearishness
⁃ Cobie: “Binance has some fantastic ways to short shitcoins” 📉📈
⁃ Cobie: “when DFINITY ($ICP) launched it was like a top 7 short ever in the history of money” lol
⁃ Light: “it will get much much worse before we even get close to a bottom”
VCs
⁃ Light: “CMS was on Twitter today saying ‘how many billions need to be raised for the market to react’” 🐧
⁃ VCs might have come in too hot to the market over the last few months, expects it to slow up over next few
Alts
⁃ Cobie: “the #1 thing to look at is does this thing that you own make any since at all” lol
⁃ Cobie: “multi cycle survival for alts is statistically very unlikely”
⁃ Ledger: *brings up Sushi 🍣
⁃ Light: “Thanks for shilling my bags and by that I mean I’m short $SUSHI”
⁃ Ledger: “I actually like Sushi because UNI will have a tougher time with value accrual due to some regulations” [i think i heard correctly]
⁃ Ledger: “I think that Sushi will have significant staying power in the DeFi landscape”
Multi-Cycle Wisdom 🧙♂️
⁃ Ledger: “understand your timeframes, how much you are willing to lose here”
⁃ Light: “if you’re wiped out if some of this actually goes to 0 you are over allocated”
⁃ Light: “I was probably 2x levered my net worth on the way down in 2017”
⁃ Light: “I think Dan (M in CMS) said this but do not let yourself become a forced seller” 🐧
⁃ Cobie: “The most important thing is just surviving cycle to cycle”
⁃ Light: “I’ve been wrong so many times in this space but still made money because I don’t feel the need to be right” Light legit just keeps quoting CMS lol 🐧🐧🐧
⁃ Light: “It is very satisfying to walk away from mistakes that you’ve made in the past”
⁃ Cobie: “You need to make a plan when you’re thinking clearly and have the discipline to actually carry it out once you’re emotional”
⁃ Light: “Be self-aware and able to introspect yourself” 🧘♂️
Light’s Last Comments
⁃ “You have to be able to see the market objectively”
⁃ “You have to see yourself as a market participant and improve with every trade”
⁃ “This market will give you incredible once in a decade opportunities so you have to be prepared to take them when they come” 🗿
*Light leaves for McDonald’s shift*
Closing comments
⁃ Cobie: “trading is kinda like Star Wars where there’s the Jedi vs. the Sith – but you gotta know when to be the Jedi and when to be the Sith and gain power from fear” 🟩<->🟥
⁃ Cobie: “something for me was getting comfortable actually selling and buying, like not caring about the txs fee”
Kevin, [21.07.21 02:20]
⁃ Ledger (on doucher in the chat): “I think sometimes people just see my face and say like this guy just has the most punchable face and just rip me until we ban them from the chat” lolllllll
Worst Case for ETH (This Year)
⁃ Cobie: “like 10% conviction? maybe $800”
Notes by Kevin
Music by GiovanniPickle