In this episode of UpOnly, Cobie and Ledger roll with no guest to talk about a variety of things we are unqualified to talk about, including what narratives might perform well, macro stuff, and crypto funds.
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Show Notes
Cobie & Ledger (no guests)
Markets
Some tokens up 10x from the bottom, others are still basically zero’d
There’s much less money in the ecosystem, so we’re not seeing run-ups that lift all tokens at once. Instead, only certain tokens rally when the “hive mind” decides to pile into specific trades (e.g. UNI, AAVE, GMX)
Trying not to shill tokens
Cobie’s trying to anonymize all on-chain activity. Sees it as a form of shilling. Hard to do, though… has started holding one position per address (has like a thousand now)
Can’t mention specific tokens on the show or they’ll get pumped & dumped
Features of the next cycle
There are projects with huge treasuries but no real product… they’re hiring treasury managers (usually ex-traders) and they might basically become hedge funds
Some projects will find a niche, build products, and sort of try to ignore the fact that they have a token (like we saw after ICO boom)
Derivatives are promising
New use cases will be unlocked by rollups and increased scalability. Maybe in gaming, but it also seems like people are trying to force this narrative, and certain financialization models could make it toxic
Copy trading strategies will become more popular
Maybe we’ll see a new generation of alt-L1 trades (Aptos/Sui/Monad)? Uncertain how this will play out
Some of the most successful traders (the ones who offer to let Cobie use their boats) aren’t who you’d expect. Not the flashy Twitter accounts, but the random ones with 3 followers (“@jimmy000291 or something”)
Macro
UK government just announced a brutal economic forecast — expecting a 15-month recession and super high inflation (estimating a 13% peak)
Is there a potential dollar crisis incoming? Lots of dollar denominated debt held by other countries. Things look bad, but macro is super complex, so who knows
The US government’s policies around USD would be called an obvious ponzi if it was all on-chain
Other
Cobie likes to mispronounce things (says “TWAP” as a single syllable instead of “T – WAP” // he told Stani, CEO of Aave, that Stani pronounces Aave wrong. Stani said sorry.)
Arthur confirmed as a future guest
Tom Brady recap: he’s 45, in better shape than Ledger, has an equity stake in FTX. Winning at life
Lots of things to watch around the Merge — ETHPow fork, staked tokens unlocked after a few months, Justin Sun making moves
Music by GiovanniPickle